Just eight weeks prior that Morgan Rogers found himself on the Stadium of Light pitch, looking confused while Unai Emery scolded him over missing a penetrating pass. At that point, as the club endured a six-game winless run, doubts remained if Rogers' form were a symptom or a cause of Villa's wider issues.
“Following Rogers' second strike… Emery discarded his jacket, extended his arms, and let out a triumphant roar.”
This weekend, however, the touchline reaction proved to be much more joyous. When Rogers curled home his second strike to reinstate the lead for Villa, Emery tore off his coat, spread his arms and roared. Villa continued to ten wins in a row and despite not winning their initial half-dozen fixtures, find themselves a mere three points off pace-setters Arsenal.
Is This Team Serious Challengers?
It remains a particularly tough proposition to answer. Past precedent, the traditional standing of Villa, argues against it. Moreover, they have not been completely commanding this season, while the wins have piled up.
As per the data, on just two occasions has the side had an expected goals figure more than 0.5 greater than their opponents. For a club which has put together 10 in a row, Villa seem weirdly vulnerable – yet right now the fine lines are swinging for them.
The Rogers Recipe
Their recent policy seems to be to engage in a shootout with an opponent and wait for their talisman to save the day with some precise efforts. This was the case against Leeds, it happened at West Ham, and again against the Red Devils.
The initial strike came from a superb shot, bent just inside the upright from a wide position. His brace-completing goal was essentially a somewhat messier replica of goal number one as he pounced on an Ollie Watkins lay-off.
“Perhaps Rogers’ right foot is becoming like Arjen Robben’s left: just because you know he’s going to whip the ball into the top corner doesn’t mean you can stop him.”
Is It Sustainable?
Logic says not. During the latest victory, Manchester United registered more shots and more shots on target. They have secured their last eight victories by a single goal. They have allowed goals in all but one of those fixtures.
Regression to the mean could be the greatest opponent the club have to face in the near future. Their key man, surely, will not continue to drilling his shots past despairing goalkeepers indefinitely.
Reasons for Optimism
Could it be a different scenario whereby, rather than results trending towards performances, the level of play rises to match the results. Important figures might still rediscover their best form.
- Ollie Watkins could start finding the net regularly.
- The winger could transform into the player he resembled during his peak.
- Tyrone Mings and Pau Torres will eventually regain fitness, fortifying a periodically leaky backline.
Perhaps there is in that the potential of a title challenge, however, it is improbable cannot keep relying on Morgan Rogers.
Savoring the Moment
But then, this was unforeseen. Few believed the team would occupy in a Champions League place in December. And most definitely earlier this season, nobody thought Rogers as the year closed would be spearheading a title charge while looking like a vital England player.
This remarkable period must be cherished exactly since it feels so unlikely. As the hero positioned himself before the Villa faithful after the match conducting the cheers, it was clear to be thoroughly enjoying it. A feeling he has rightly earned. These runs of form are uncommon in the sport and ought to be celebrated.
